For over a year, Ethiopia has been under a “low drumbeat of dread,” seemingly on the brink of collapse. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ambitions, economic instability, and violent ethnic conflicts paint a picture of a nation on edge. Yet, while all-out war has been repeatedly anticipated, it has yet to erupt. As the world shifts focus to other regions, Ethiopia’s internal and external pressures continue to fester, threatening to tip the nation into crisis and destabilize the Horn of Africa.
The Amhara Conflict: A Ticking Time Bomb
The situation in Ethiopia’s Amhara region is dire. In a region with approximately 20 million residents, 4 million people face food insecurity and disease outbreaks, including measles and cholera. Violence is rampant, with regular kidnappings, murders, and massacres in an undeclared civil war between ethnic Amhara groups and the federal government.
Although the current Amhara insurgency officially began in the summer of 2023, its roots go back to the devastating Tigray War (2020–2022). During that war, Amhara militias known as Fano fought alongside federal forces against Tigrayan forces. But when the peace agreement was signed in 2022, Amhara interests were sidelined, leading to widespread resentment and a renewed insurgency.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s move in 2024 to disarm regional forces further inflamed the situation. Many Amhara paramilitaries refused to comply, melting into the countryside and joining armed groups like Fano. In August 2023, Fano launched a major offensive, capturing airports, government buildings, and even entire cities. Federal forces eventually reclaimed control, but unrest has continued. This conflict is now a central driver of instability in Ethiopia, with violence and displacement affecting millions.
Oromia: Another Crisis Close to Home
Oromia, Ethiopia’s most populous state, is embroiled in a separate conflict involving the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Despite Abiy Ahmed’s Oromo ethnicity, his rise to power has done little to ease tensions in Oromia. Since 2018, federal forces have been fighting the OLA, a group with grievances rooted in historical marginalization and the impacts of the Tigray War. In some cases, violence has turned ethnically targeted, with the OLA accused of massacring Amhara civilians in Oromia.
While less deadly than the Amhara or Tigray conflicts, the Oromia conflict’s proximity to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, makes it particularly concerning. The widespread violence is not just destabilizing Oromia but also spreading kidnappings, killings, and other violent incidents throughout the country. As these conflicts take on a life of their own, they threaten Ethiopia’s fragile peace and unity.
Ethiopia’s Proxy Conflict with Egypt
Ethiopia’s internal troubles are compounded by its contentious relationship with Egypt, particularly around water rights and port access. Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, a major tributary of the Nile River, has heightened tensions. Egypt, which depends on the Nile for nearly all its water, views the dam as a threat to its survival.
To complicate matters further, Ethiopia’s push for access to a seaport in Somaliland, an autonomous region of Somalia, has upset Somalia’s federal government and its backer, Egypt. Ethiopia bypassed Somalia’s central government to negotiate this port access directly with Somaliland, prompting Egypt to ramp up its support for Somalia. Over the last few months, Egypt has sent Somalia significant arms shipments and pledged to send 5,000 troops to replace Ethiopian peacekeepers in the region by the end of 2024. This support aligns Egypt and Somalia in a stance against Ethiopia, bringing the nations closer to a proxy conflict.
Sudan: Another Border Threat
On Ethiopia’s northwest border, the ongoing civil war in Sudan adds another layer of complexity to Ethiopia’s regional challenges. The Sudanese conflict between the Sudanese Army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has created chaos and displacement along the Ethiopian border, with thousands of Sudanese refugees crossing into Ethiopia.
The Fano militia, which controls parts of the Ethiopian-Sudanese border, is rumored to be considering an alliance with the RSF. Such an alliance, however unlikely it may appear on the surface, could further entangle Ethiopia in Sudan’s civil war, drawing more attention and resources away from Ethiopia’s internal crises.
The Complex Web of Internal and External Pressures
These conflicts—Amhara, Oromia, Sudanese border tensions, and the proxy confrontation with Egypt—illustrate Ethiopia’s precarious position. The country’s decentralized structure, with 13 ethnic regions, has allowed each area to develop its own militia for self-defense. This autonomy is meant to maintain stability, but instead, it has turned each region into a potential flashpoint.
As regional militias continue to resist disarmament, the federal government faces the constant threat of rebellion. The Ethiopian constitution permits regional forces for “public order and peace,” but many regions interpret this broadly, amassing weaponry and manpower that rival the national army.
The Role of Abiy Ahmed’s Leadership in Ethiopia’s Instability
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership is another factor contributing to the unrest. When he assumed power in 2018, he was hailed as a reformer who would bring Ethiopia into a new era of unity and prosperity. However, his tenure has been marked by crackdowns on dissent and a failed attempt to consolidate power by disarming regional forces, leading to increased resistance and fragmentation.
The Prime Minister’s bold moves have included reviving Ethiopia’s navy, despite the country being landlocked, and engaging with France to support these efforts. These actions reflect his ambition for Ethiopia to become a significant player in the Horn of Africa, but they have also intensified Ethiopia’s rivalry with Egypt and stoked fears within the country’s ethnic regions that Abiy’s government may not have their best interests at heart.
What Lies Ahead for Ethiopia?
The outlook for Ethiopia is bleak but not hopeless. The federal government’s efforts to quash the Amhara and Oromo insurgencies, while maintaining diplomatic balance with neighboring Sudan and an increasingly hostile Egypt, highlight the daunting challenges facing the nation. Ethiopia’s geopolitical ambitions—especially around the Nile and its desire for port access—could draw in regional powers, potentially escalating to a cold war in the Horn of Africa.
While Ethiopia has not yet descended into a full-scale civil war, the combination of internal ethnic conflicts, Sudanese border instability, and tensions with Egypt and Somalia create a volatile environment. Any misstep could tip the balance toward widespread conflict.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why is the Amhara region experiencing violence?
The Amhara region has been destabilized by long-standing grievances following the Tigray War and the 2022 peace deal, which overlooked Amhara interests. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s attempt to disarm regional forces exacerbated tensions, leading to a renewed insurgency by the Fano militia.
What is the significance of Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam?
The GERD is a massive hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile, which provides most of the water for Egypt. While Ethiopia sees the dam as a key to energy independence, Egypt fears it could threaten its water supply, making the dam a major point of contention.
How does Egypt fit into Ethiopia’s regional tensions?
Egypt has sided with Somalia against Ethiopia in a growing proxy conflict. This rivalry is fueled by Ethiopia’s port ambitions in Somaliland and the Nile water dispute. Recently, Egypt has sent troops and weapons to support Somalia, increasing the likelihood of a protracted confrontation.
What role does the Oromo Liberation Army play in Ethiopia’s crisis?
The OLA is a militia fighting for greater autonomy for Oromia. Though Abiy Ahmed himself is Oromo, his government has struggled to control the group, which has been involved in ethnic violence against Amhara civilians. The OLA’s insurgency is part of Ethiopia’s broader instability.
Could Ethiopia’s conflicts lead to a full-blown civil war?
While Ethiopia has avoided a full-scale civil war so far, the risks remain high. Ongoing ethnic violence, Abiy’s contested reforms, and regional tensions with Egypt and Somalia could escalate, potentially plunging the country into deeper conflict.
