On December 1, 2023, the Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM) claimed to have gathered enough signatures to force a vote within the GOP on whether Texas should secede from the United States. For decades, this idea of Texas seceding has floated around in the background of U.S. politics. But with TNM’s recent push and growing support for secession, the dream of Texas becoming an independent nation has once again grabbed the public’s attention. However, this raises three crucial questions: Is it legal? Would the U.S. allow it? And could Texas survive as an independent nation?
Let’s dive into the details of each question and explore the realities behind Texas secession.
1. Is Texas Legally Allowed to Secede?
The most straightforward answer is no, Texas cannot legally secede from the United States. This was made clear after the Civil War and further confirmed in the U.S. Supreme Court case Texas v. White in 1869. Following the Confederacy’s defeat, Texas, like other Southern states, rejoined the Union. During the Texas v. White case, the Supreme Court held that no state can unilaterally secede from the United States, even if a majority of its residents support it.
Chief Justice Salmon P. Chase emphasized that Texas had entered an “indissoluble relation” with the United States when it joined the Union and that any attempt at unilateral secession would be “absolutely null.” Therefore, secession is not an option unless it is agreed upon by the federal government, something that is extremely unlikely.
Despite this clear legal precedent, Texas secessionists often point to a clause from the 1845 annexation of Texas into the U.S., which says that Texas can divide itself into up to four new states. However, this clause refers to dividing the state for administrative purposes, not secession. No provision in the annexation documents grants Texas the right to leave the Union.
2. Would the U.S. Allow It?
Even if Texas defied legal rulings and pushed for secession, the U.S. government would not allow it without a fight. The Civil War serves as a reminder of the lengths to which the U.S. will go to preserve its union. If Texas declared independence today, it would likely face strong resistance, starting with legal battles and, if pushed far enough, military intervention.
Texas is home to numerous U.S. military bases and over 112,000 active-duty personnel. These forces are part of the U.S. military and would not automatically become part of a new “Texas military.” The U.S. could easily withdraw these forces or even use them to prevent a Texan secession.
Secession advocates might argue that Texas has its own military force— the Texas Military Forces (TMF), including the Texas Army National Guard, Texas Air National Guard, and Texas State Guard. However, with only around 113,000 personnel, the TMF is no match for the U.S. military’s 1.3 million active-duty service members and vast military resources. Even if Texas tried to resist militarily, it would stand little chance of succeeding against the overwhelming power of the U.S. military.
3. Could Texas Survive as an Independent Nation?
Even if Texas somehow managed to secede, the question remains: Could it survive on its own? On the surface, Texas looks like it has a strong foundation to stand as an independent nation. With a $2.4 trillion economy, Texas is responsible for producing 9% of the U.S. GDP and is home to 52 Fortune 500 companies. This would make Texas the eighth-largest economy in the world, ahead of countries like Russia and South Korea.
However, these impressive numbers don’t tell the full story. Texas relies heavily on federal funding from the U.S. government. In 2021, Texas received $105.8 billion in federal funds, the third-highest of any state. This money supports critical infrastructure, healthcare, education, and other public services. If Texas seceded, it would lose access to these funds, putting a massive strain on its economy.
Economic Challenges: Food, Trade, and Energy
Food security would also be a significant challenge. While Texas produces an impressive amount of food, a study from the University of Texas found that the state only produces enough to feed 11.2 million people—far short of its current population of 30.5 million. Texas would have to rely on food imports, which could become much more expensive if the U.S. and other countries impose sanctions or raise prices on exported goods.
Energy is one sector where Texas might thrive. The state is the leading producer of natural gas and crude oil in the U.S., accounting for 27% of the nation’s gas production and 43% of its crude oil. Texas has vast energy reserves that could power the nation and provide economic stability. However, exporting that energy might become difficult if international trade relations become strained or if the U.S. decides to sanction Texan energy exports.
Finally, Texas’ tourism industry would likely take a hit. The state’s $193.8 billion tourism industry relies heavily on domestic visitors, with nearly 50 million Americans traveling to Texas in 2023 alone. If Texas became an independent nation, these visitors would need visas, creating a barrier that could discourage many from traveling there, especially if relations with the U.S. were strained.
4. Do Texans Really Want to Secede?
Despite the legal and practical hurdles, a portion of Texans does support secession. The Texas Nationalist Movement claims it gathered 140,000 signatures for its petition to place secession on the ballot. This represents less than 0.5% of Texas’ total population, indicating that support for secession may not be as widespread as TNM suggests.
However, other surveys show stronger support. A 2024 YouGov survey revealed that 31% of Texans favor secession, second only to Alaska (36%) in terms of states where secession is most popular. Another poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found that 33% of Texans would vote for secession, while 45% believe Texas has the right to secede.
Despite these numbers, the majority of Texans—67% in the Redfield & Wilton poll—still oppose secession, reflecting a state divided on the issue. Most Texans likely recognize that the economic and political risks of secession far outweigh any potential benefits.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. Is Texas legally allowed to secede from the U.S.?
No, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Texas v. White (1869) that no state can unilaterally secede from the Union.
2. How strong is Texas’ economy compared to other countries?
Texas has a $2.4 trillion economy, making it the eighth-largest in the world. However, it relies heavily on federal funding, which it would lose if it seceded.
3. How popular is the secession movement in Texas?
Support for secession varies. Some surveys show that around 31-33% of Texans support secession, though most Texans oppose it.
4. Could Texas defend itself militarily?
Texas’ state military forces are much smaller than the U.S. military. If Texas were to secede, it would struggle to defend itself against the overwhelming power of the U.S. armed forces.
5. How would secession affect Texas’ food supply?
Texas currently doesn’t produce enough food to feed its entire population. If it seceded, it would need to import food, which could become costly if trade relations with the U.S. were strained.
