The evolving situation in Ukraine highlights a complex interplay of alliances, military support, and geopolitical strategies, particularly as Russia has become increasingly dependent on foreign aid for sustaining its war efforts. Since the invasion began, Russia has sought equipment and military supplies from Iran, North Korea, and even China. These countries provide critical arms, technology, and economic support to Russia, while simultaneously advancing their own strategic interests.
Iran’s Role in Supplying Russia with Drones and Ballistic Missiles
Iran has been a key supplier of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Russia, delivering over 3,700 Shahed-136 drones. These kamikaze drones have been repeatedly used by Russia to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure, causing significant damage across the country. In addition to supplying drones, Iran has transferred the knowledge required for Russia to begin producing these drones domestically. Russia has taken advantage of this and is now manufacturing hundreds of these drones within its own borders. Furthermore, plans for a new Shahed-136 factory in Russia promise to significantly expand the country’s drone production capabilities.
If that weren’t enough, the European Union disclosed credible evidence in September 2024 that Iran has supplied at least 400 short-range ballistic missiles to the Russian military. These weapons are vital for Russia’s ongoing assault against Ukrainian forces, illustrating Tehran’s direct involvement in supporting Moscow’s military objectives.
North Korea’s Contribution: Artillery, Missiles, and Defense Pacts
North Korea, under Kim Jong-un’s leadership, has also become a major contributor to Russia’s war effort. Since September 2023, North Korea is believed to have sent at least 11,000 containers of arms to Russia, including 5 million artillery rounds for use in the conflict. In addition to conventional artillery, North Korea has supplied Hwasong-11 short-range ballistic missiles, which have already been used to strike Ukrainian cities, causing significant casualties.
The relationship between North Korea and Russia has evolved beyond arms transfers. In June 2024, the two countries signed a mutual defense pact, the first of its kind since the Cold War. This agreement binds North Korea and Russia to assist each other militarily if either country is attacked, marking a significant escalation in their alliance. North Korea’s cooperation with Russia extends beyond the battlefield, as recent satellite imagery suggests that Russia is also helping North Korea develop advanced military technologies, including satellite programs and missile technologies.
China’s Strategic Economic and Technological Support
Among all the nations assisting Russia, China stands out as the most critical, especially from an economic perspective. While China has refrained from directly supplying lethal aid, it has provided vital dual-use technologies—goods that have both civilian and military applications—such as semiconductors, jet engines, and machine tools. These components are critical for Russia to continue producing precision-guided missiles and other advanced munitions for use in Ukraine.
Since the war began, 90% of Russia’s semiconductor imports have come from China. Furthermore, a report from a Brussels-based think tank revealed that Russian imports of Western technology, such as microchips, have returned to pre-war levels, largely thanks to Chinese assistance. This economic lifeline has allowed Russia to circumvent some of the worst effects of Western sanctions, helping to sustain its war machine.
China’s support extends beyond technology. Beijing continues to purchase Russian oil and natural gas, offering Moscow a crucial revenue stream. This economic cooperation has not only helped prop up Russia’s economy but also solidified China’s role as the key player in what many are now calling a new Eurasian axis.
A New “Axis of Upheaval”: Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China
The growing cooperation between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea is not confined to Ukraine. Analysts in the Western world have begun referring to this coalition as a new “axis” of countries united by their opposition to the U.S.-led global order. Each of these nations has revisionist geopolitical objectives that conflict with the interests of the United States and its allies.
- Russia seeks to reassert control over former Soviet territories, including Ukraine and Georgia.
- China aims to establish control over Taiwan and expand its influence in East Asia.
- Iran desires the destruction of Israel and the toppling of pro-Western monarchies in the Middle East.
- North Korea remains committed to the goal of unifying the Korean Peninsula under its rule, which would require the destruction of South Korea.
These shared goals have brought these four countries closer together, even though their interests and relationships are not always aligned perfectly.
Diverging Interests and Potential for Conflict
Despite this cooperation, significant tensions exist between these nations, particularly concerning their respective relationships with China. Unlike Russia, Iran, and North Korea, China benefits substantially from the current U.S.-led global order due to its vast trade networks with the West. For instance, while China’s trade with Russia increased to $240 billion in 2023, this still pales in comparison to its trade with the U.S. ($660 billion) and EU ($800 billion). Thus, China has so far avoided direct involvement in the war in Ukraine and has refrained from crossing the same line that Russia, Iran, and North Korea have.
This divergence in interests could potentially limit the long-term viability of this “axis.” While Russia is heavily incentivized to deepen its relationships with Iran and North Korea, China remains wary of becoming too closely aligned with these countries, as it seeks to balance its trade interests with the West. Additionally, Russia and Iran have found themselves competing in energy markets like China, where both nations are selling oil at discounted prices to the same buyer. This competition could strain their relationship further, especially as sanctions and economic isolation continue to affect both countries.
Conclusion: An Emerging but Unequal Alliance
While there is undeniable cooperation between Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China, it is far from a unified, formal alliance. Their cooperation is largely driven by their shared opposition to U.S. hegemony and the need to support each other in the face of economic sanctions and military isolation. However, diverging economic interests, historical suspicions, and unequal relationships—particularly between Russia and China—mean that this coalition is unlikely to develop into a formal military alliance akin to NATO.
Instead, this “axis of upheaval” operates as a strategic convenience, allowing these nations to pursue their individual goals while challenging U.S. global influence. Whether this alliance grows stronger or weakens in the future will depend largely on how the conflict in Ukraine unfolds and whether China ultimately chooses to fully commit to this bloc, especially as tensions over Taiwan rise.
FAQs
Q: What is the Shahed-136 drone, and how has it been used in Ukraine?
A: The Shahed-136 is a kamikaze drone manufactured by Iran. It has been supplied to Russia and used extensively to attack Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities.
Q: How has North Korea supported Russia in the Ukraine conflict?
A: North Korea has supplied artillery rounds, short-range ballistic missiles, and other military equipment to Russia. In return, Russia has provided diplomatic support and possibly military technologies.
Q: What is China’s role in supporting Russia?
A: While China has not directly supplied military aid, it has provided Russia with dual-use technologies like semiconductors and continues to purchase Russian oil and gas, giving Moscow a crucial economic lifeline.
Q: Is there a formal alliance between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea?
A: No, there is no formal alliance like NATO. However, these countries are cooperating more closely, driven by shared opposition to the U.S.-led global order.
