In late July, smoke rose above the Yemeni port city of Hodeida as the Israeli Air Force launched a series of strikes on critical infrastructure. This marked Israel’s first direct involvement in Yemen, responding to Houthi missile strikes on Tel Aviv. Yet, this incident is just one chapter in the broader Red Sea crisis, a conflict that has rapidly escalated with global implications. By early 2024, the Houthis had partially blockaded the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a key waterway for international shipping, forcing the United States and its allies to intervene militarily. However, despite substantial efforts and enormous costs, the Houthis continue to defy global powers, raising the question: how have they managed to hold their ground against some of the world’s most advanced militaries?
This blog post delves into the origins and evolution of the Houthi movement, the international responses to their insurgency, and the wider geopolitical stakes in Yemen and the Red Sea. We will explore the key players, strategies, and consequences of this ongoing conflict, as well as what the future may hold for the region and the world.
The Rise of the Houthi Movement
The Houthi movement, or Ansar Allah, began as a minor youth group in the early 1990s. Initially focused on Zaydi revivalism, a branch of Shia Islam prominent in northern Yemen, the movement quickly transformed into a revolutionary force in response to the U.S. invasion of Iraq. By the mid-2000s, the Houthis had become a significant opposition group, challenging the legitimacy of the Yemeni government. Yemen’s then-President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, sought to crush the movement, forcing the Houthis to retreat to the northern mountains along the border with Saudi Arabia.
In their isolation, the Houthis forged stronger ties with Iran and other Shia factions in the Middle East. By the time the Yemeni Revolution broke out in 2011, the Houthis were well-positioned to take advantage of the political chaos. They aligned themselves with the deposed President Saleh, a former adversary, and by 2015 had seized the capital, Sana’a. Saleh later turned against the Houthis, but his forces were too compromised by Houthi infiltration, and after a brief struggle, the Houthis consolidated their control over northern Yemen and its military resources.
More significantly, the Houthis gained access to Yemen’s coastline, including the critical Bab al-Mandab Strait, a chokepoint for global shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. This strategic position allowed the Houthis to participate in piracy and arms smuggling, which became crucial revenue streams, particularly after the loss of Aden to Saudi-backed forces.
The International Response: Operation Prosperity Guardian
In response to the Houthi threat, especially their blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait in late 2023, the United States launched Operation Prosperity Guardian in early 2024. The operation aimed to restore safe passage through the Red Sea by deploying a U.S. carrier strike group alongside 20 regional and international allies. While the U.S. planned to take direct action against the Houthis, European allies were more cautious, opting to provide escort missions under a separate operation named Operation Aspides.
Despite the significant military presence, by mid-2024 the Houthis had not only remained undeterred but had intensified their attacks on international shipping. Notably, the sinking of the MV Tutor in June marked the second major vessel lost to Houthi strikes, causing global shipping insurance premiums to skyrocket. The U.S. Navy, though technologically superior, found itself increasingly outmaneuvered by the Houthis’ asymmetrical warfare tactics, which involved low-cost drones, explosive boats, and anti-ship missiles supplied by Iran.
The mounting costs of the operation, estimated at $4 billion, and the lack of progress have raised questions about the effectiveness of the U.S. strategy. The world’s premier naval power appears unable to overcome a seemingly ragtag group of insurgents. But why is this the case?
Asymmetrical Warfare: The Houthi Strategy
The Houthis’ success lies in their ability to wage asymmetrical warfare—a strategy that exploits the vulnerabilities of more advanced, conventional militaries. Drawing inspiration from Iran’s military playbook, the Houthis have employed tactics designed to counter the superior firepower of the U.S. Navy. This includes dispersing forces, using analog communication methods to avoid detection, and launching coordinated attacks with explosive-laden boats and drones.
The Houthis’ access to the Bab al-Mandab Strait has been particularly advantageous. At its narrowest, the strait is just 30 kilometers wide, making it a vulnerable chokepoint for international shipping. The Houthis have capitalized on this geography to disrupt global trade, targeting vessels with low-cost but highly effective weapons. Iranian support has been crucial in this regard, with Tehran providing anti-ship missiles, drones, and intelligence. The deployment of these weapons is believed to be coordinated by Iranian operatives aboard the MV Bashad, a commercial vessel conducting reconnaissance in the Arabian Sea.
The Cost of War: Economic and Political Implications
Warfare is not just about military strategy; it’s also about economics. The cost of Operation Prosperity Guardian has reached between $1.8 and $4 billion, straining U.S. resources and taxpayer patience. Each U.S. destroyer deployed in the operation costs $2 billion to build and $7 million to operate monthly, while repair costs for damaged vessels can easily reach hundreds of millions. For example, the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole by al-Qaeda caused $240 million in damage, despite the attackers spending less than $1 million on the operation.
The economic imbalance extends to the weaponry used in the conflict. U.S. missiles, which cost between $1 million and $4.3 million each, are being used to destroy drones that cost as little as $2,000. This disparity has led some to question the sustainability of the U.S. approach.
On the other hand, the Houthis’ ability to continue disrupting global trade has driven up insurance premiums for shipping through the Red Sea. Shipping companies now face the choice of either risking their vessels in Houthi-controlled waters or rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 days to their journeys and significantly increasing costs. This disruption to global trade has ripple effects throughout the supply chain, further exacerbating the economic toll of the conflict.
The Geopolitical Stakes: The U.S., China, and the Middle East
The U.S. Navy’s struggle against the Houthis is complicated by broader geopolitical concerns. With tensions escalating in the South China Sea and the ongoing war in Ukraine, the U.S. cannot afford to divert too many resources to the Red Sea. In fact, the decision to deploy the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier to the Red Sea came at the cost of leaving the South China Sea without a carrier, a strategic concession that Washington cannot easily afford.
Moreover, the conflict in Yemen has limited international support. The war in Gaza has made it politically difficult for Middle Eastern powers to align themselves with the U.S., leaving European allies as Washington’s primary partners. However, the European fleet is both underfunded and undermanned, and their operation, Aspides, has proven ineffective. Lacking a unified command structure and suffering from poor coordination with U.S. forces, the Europeans have struggled to mount a coherent response to the Houthi threat.
Diplomatic and Military Options: What’s Next?
With military progress stalled, Washington may be forced to consider diplomatic solutions, none of which are particularly palatable. One option is to strengthen Yemen’s official government in Aden, but this regime is viewed as corrupt and incompetent, making it an unlikely candidate to win over the Yemeni public. Another option is to seek broader international involvement, perhaps through the United Nations, but this would require cooperation from Russia and China, both of whom have vested interests in the region and would likely demand significant concessions in exchange for their support.
A more immediate solution might involve resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which the Houthis have used as a justification for their actions in the Red Sea. However, any attempt to broker peace in Gaza would be politically risky for Washington, particularly given the strong support for Israel among U.S. voters.
Conclusion: A Conflict with No End in Sight
The conflict in Yemen and the Red Sea shows no signs of abating. The Houthis, bolstered by Iranian support and their control of key strategic territory, have proven resilient in the face of overwhelming military power. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its allies are grappling with the economic and political costs of a conflict that is far more complex than a simple military engagement.
As the world’s attention shifts to other global hotspots, including the South China Sea and Ukraine, Washington faces a difficult choice: continue to pour resources into an unwinnable war or seek a diplomatic solution that may require significant geopolitical concessions. For now, the Houthis remain undeterred, and each day the conflict drags on, global trade—and global security—pays the price.
FAQ Section
Q: Why is the U.S. Navy struggling to defeat the Houthis?
A: The U.S. Navy is facing an asymmetrical threat from the Houthis, who are using low-cost, high-impact tactics like explosive boats, drones, and anti-ship missiles. These tactics are difficult to counter with conventional naval forces, which are designed for larger-scale, state-to-state conflicts.
Q: What is the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and why is it important?
A: The Bab al-Mandab Strait is a narrow waterway between Yemen and Djibouti, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It is a critical chokepoint for global shipping, particularly for oil and gas exports from the Middle East to Europe and beyond.
Q: How is Iran involved in the conflict?
A: Iran provides financial, military, and logistical support to the Houthis, including advanced weapons like anti-ship missiles and drones. This support is part of Iran’s broader strategy to challenge Saudi Arabia and its allies in the region.
Q: What are the economic implications of the conflict?
A: The conflict has driven up global shipping costs due to increased insurance premiums and the need for ships to reroute around the conflict zone. This disruption to global trade is contributing to higher prices for goods and services worldwide.
Q: What diplomatic options are available to resolve the conflict?
A: Diplomatic options include strengthening the Yemeni government, engaging in broader international negotiations, or resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which the Houthis use as a justification for their actions. However, all of these options come with significant challenges.
