Strategic rivalries among nations, while intense and seemingly endless, do not last forever. These rivalries, driven by competing interests and ideologies, eventually conclude due to various factors such as changes in global power dynamics, technological advancements, internal governance collapses, or the outcome of wars. History is replete with examples of such rivalries that have shifted from fierce competition to unexpected alliances or relative peace. This blog post explores how these rivalries evolve and eventually end, using historical cases and the current U.S.-China strategic rivalry as a focal point.
Historical Examples of Ending Rivalries
One of the most illustrative examples of a strategic rivalry that ended and transformed into a lasting alliance is the relationship between Britain and France. In 1905, these two powers were locked in fierce competition for dominance in Europe. However, by the time of the Crimean War just a few decades later, they were fighting together against Russian imperialism, forging a partnership that has endured through the 20th century and beyond.
Similarly, the United States and Japan were once bitter enemies during World War II, engaged in some of the most intense naval battles in history. Yet, within a short period after the war, these two nations became close allies, a relationship that remains strong today. These examples demonstrate that even the most intense rivalries can evolve into cooperation and mutual respect.
The U.S.-China Rivalry: A Modern Case Study
Today, the dominant strategic rivalry on the international stage is between the United States, the world’s leading power, and China, an emerging contender. This rivalry is often perceived as a perpetual conflict, reminiscent of the dystopian vision of endless war between superpowers depicted in George Orwell’s 1984. However, empirical evidence suggests that such rivalries have a finite lifespan.
In their book How Rivalries End, authors Karen Rasler, William Thompson, and Sumit Ganguly analyze great power rivalries since 1816 and found that, on average, they last about 60 years. Only three rivalries have lasted longer than a century. Applying this to the U.S.-China context, if we consider the rivalry to have started with China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 or the economic crisis of 2008, we are still in the early stages of this rivalry, perhaps nearing the halfway point.
This perspective challenges the often-predicted scenario of an endless Cold War between the U.S. and China. The rivalry will certainly evolve, and its end may come sooner than many expect.
Factors Leading to the End of Strategic Rivalries
Several factors can lead to the end of strategic rivalries. These include:
- Changes in the Balance of Power: Shifts in regional or global power dynamics can alter the calculus of rival states. For instance, a decline in one power’s influence or the rise of a new challenger can prompt a re-evaluation of priorities.
- Technological Breakthroughs: Innovations that drastically alter military or economic capabilities can change the terms of a rivalry. A state that gains a significant technological edge may force its rival to seek accommodation rather than confrontation.
- Internal Governance Collapse: A regime change or internal instability can weaken a state’s ability to sustain a rivalry. The collapse of the Soviet Union is a prime example, where internal pressures led to the end of the Cold War.
- War Outcomes: The results of wars, whether involving both rivals or just one, can decisively end a rivalry. The defeat of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in World War II eliminated these states as rivals to the Allied powers.
- Achievement of Strategic Goals: A state may end a rivalry if it achieves its primary objectives, even if this does not involve the complete annihilation of its opponent. For example, the U.S. achieved its goal of containing Soviet influence without resorting to direct conflict.
The Current State of the U.S.-China Rivalry
The rivalry between the U.S. and China has been escalating over the past two decades. The U.S. initially attempted to integrate China into the global economic system, hoping that economic liberalization would lead to political reforms. However, as China’s economic and military power grew, it became clear that Beijing had its own ambitions, often at odds with U.S. interests. This has led to a more confrontational approach by the U.S., characterized by trade wars, sanctions, and increased military presence in the Asia-Pacific region.
China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, has adopted a more assertive foreign policy, breaking with the previous doctrine of “hiding one’s capabilities.” Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea, its Belt and Road Initiative, and its support for authoritarian regimes have further strained relations with Washington.
The U.S. views China’s rise as a direct threat to its global dominance, particularly in strategic areas such as technology and military power. Meanwhile, China perceives U.S. actions as attempts to contain its rise and undermine its sovereignty. This dynamic has led to a growing consensus that the rivalry is heading towards a more confrontational phase, with some even predicting a potential military conflict.
Hawks and Owls: Competing Strategies for Ending the Rivalry
Within the U.S. and China, there are different schools of thought on how to approach the rivalry. These can be broadly categorized into two camps: the “hawks” and the “owls.”
- Hawks advocate for a more aggressive approach, arguing that the U.S. should aim for outright victory over China. They believe that the U.S. must invest in military power, strengthen alliances, and push back against China’s influence globally. The goal, in their view, is not just to contain China but to force it into a position of submission or even to precipitate its internal collapse.
- Owls argue for a more balanced approach, emphasizing competition with cooperative elements. They believe that a strategy of managed rivalry, where both powers engage in dialogue and cooperation in certain areas while competing in others, is more likely to serve long-term U.S. interests. This camp advocates for a “clear-eyed coexistence” that avoids unnecessary escalation and seeks to prevent the rivalry from spiraling into open conflict.
Potential Outcomes of the U.S.-China Rivalry
The end of the U.S.-China rivalry could take several forms, depending on how the two powers navigate their relationship in the coming years. Possible scenarios include:
- The Hawkish Victory: This scenario involves the U.S. achieving dominance over China through superior economic, military, and diplomatic strategies. China, unable to sustain its challenge, would either capitulate or undergo a significant internal transformation, leading to a new, more cooperative Chinese state.
- The Owl’s Balance: In this scenario, both the U.S. and China recognize the limits of their rivalry and shift towards a more stable coexistence. While competition would continue in many areas, both powers would avoid actions that could lead to direct conflict. This outcome would resemble the U.S.-Japan relationship post-World War II, where economic competition coexists with strategic partnership.
- Internal Collapse: China could experience significant internal challenges, such as economic crises, political instability, or social unrest, leading to a weakening of its global ambitions. This scenario would end the rivalry but could also create new global challenges, such as regional instability or a power vacuum.
- Mutual Decline: Both the U.S. and China could face significant internal and external challenges that diminish their global influence. In this scenario, the rivalry might end not because of victory or accommodation but due to a relative decline in both powers, leading to a multipolar world where neither dominates.
- The Thaw: Similar to the end of the Cold War, the U.S. and China might find common ground on major global challenges, such as climate change or pandemics, leading to a gradual reduction in tensions. This scenario would require significant changes in leadership or policy direction in both countries.
Conclusion: The Inevitable End of Rivalries
Strategic rivalries, while intense and often protracted, do not last forever. The U.S.-China rivalry, like those before it, will eventually come to an end, driven by a combination of internal and external factors. The challenge for policymakers in both Washington and Beijing is to manage this rivalry in a way that minimizes the risk of catastrophic conflict while positioning their nations for a future beyond rivalry. History shows that even the most entrenched adversaries can find paths to peace or at least to a stable coexistence. As the world watches this great power rivalry unfold, it remains to be seen which path the U.S. and China will take.
FAQs
Q1: What historical examples show that strategic rivalries can end?
Strategic rivalries, such as those between Britain and France or the U.S. and Japan, have ended and transformed into lasting alliances. For example, Britain and France went from fierce competitors to partners in the Crimean War, and the U.S. and Japan became close allies after World War II.
Q2: How long do great power rivalries typically last?
On average, great power rivalries last about 60 years. Only three rivalries since 1816 have lasted longer than a century. The U.S.-China rivalry, depending on its start date, may be nearing its midpoint.
Q3: What factors can lead to the end of a strategic rivalry?
Several factors can lead to the end of a strategic rivalry, including changes in the balance of power, technological breakthroughs, internal governance collapse, the outcome of wars, or the achievement of strategic goals.
Q4: What are the potential outcomes of the U.S.-China rivalry?
The U.S.-China rivalry could end in several ways, including a decisive U.S. victory, a balanced coexistence, China’s internal collapse, mutual decline, or a gradual thaw in tensions.
Q5: Can the U.S.-China rivalry end without conflict?
Yes, the rivalry could end without conflict if both powers recognize the limits of their competition and shift towards a more stable coexistence, similar to the U.S.-Japan relationship post-World War II.
